The Survivor phenome-non(?)

survivor badge

Does broadcasting of the popular show have a positive or a negative impact on email opens at that time?

We at Moosend have a soft spot for investing ourselves in discovering the effect of various popular shows on emails across the world. This time, the latest hype over the popular #Survivor game had us wondering whether the show airing has an impact on email opens normally occurring at that time. Since we like numbers a tad too much to keep wondering, we took a short break from brewing our exciting upcoming releases and focused on Survivor. Oh, well.

To determine whether Survivor does have an effect on email opens when it airs, we focused on all campaigns activated (several millions of emails, in fact) and tested 3 assumptions:

Hypothesis 1: When Survivor airs, opens drop.

Hypothesis 2: On days when Survivor is not on, opens increase.

Hypothesis 3: Percentage difference between Tuesdays, when Survivor airs, and Thursdays, when it doesn’t.

We relied on data since the beginning of the year (approximately when the show first aired) through late March. We tested our hypotheses for the first three days of the week, on which days opens are considerably higher in comparison to the weekend, based on Moosend’s data. The show airs for an average of three hours from 21.00 to midnight, which is the time frame which we used in our hypotheses, too.

Let’s take a closer look:

Hypothesis 1: When Survivor airs, opens drop.

Testing for the first hypothesis, the results from our data suggested that it is valid. More specifically, breaking down the time axis into two periods -before and after Survivor aired- we see that after 21.00 email opens dropped compared with the respective figures on a regular Monday (ie. regular as in “Before Survivor”). By analogy, opens on the given Survivor Tuesdays and Wednesdays performed lower than regular ones.

Mondays

emails opens Mondays

 

Tuesdays

emails opens Tuesdays

Wednesdays

emails opens Wednesdays

Hypothesis 2: The days that Survivor is not on air, opens increase.

This hypothesis was disproved, as it was valid for Mondays and Tuesdays alone. In particular, when Survivor was not on, opens did increase compared to Survivor Mondays and Tuesdays. Again, our theory was not validated for Wednesday.

Mondays

emails opens Mondays

Tuesdays

emails opens Tuesdays

Wednesdays

emails opens Wednesdays

Hypothesis 3: Percentage difference between Tuesdays, when Survivor airs, and Thursdays, when it doesn’t.

We tested a third hypothesis to determine the percentage difference between Survivor Tuesdays and regular Thursdays. Even though Survivor day experienced more opens than Regular day (by 1.55% in 95% confidence interval).

 

difference between Survivor Tuesdays and regular Thursdays

Conclusion

According to our data of the past few months when Survivor is on air, opens fall compared to days before it started broadcasting. What was not validated though was our hypotheses that opens would increase on weekdays the show is not on, and that there would be a percentage difference between a random Survivor day and a regular day.

All of the above point towards Survivor not classifying as a trend that is, one that would have an impact on opens. But we’ll be back with more Survivor-related hypotheses soon, for all of you with an interest in the show!